Iran
Ceasefire, nuclear talks and the Strait of Hormuz.
Live Polymarket markets · trade directly on PolymarketTop question
BY 24H VOLUMEIran leadership change by December 31?
13%▼1 today · Unlikely
YES PRICE · LAST MONTH
100%50%
5 OctToday
$83K 24h · $5.7M total · closes Dec 31 ’27Trade
News on Iran
Al Jazeera · 59 min agoIsraeli forces kill four in Gaza as fifth Palestinian dies of woundsNearly 1,600 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since a US-brokered 'ceasefire' took effect in October last year.Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?94%▲4
BBC News · 2 hr agoUS strikes Iran ahead of midterm electionsUS officials described the attacks on Qeshm Island as limited and defensive, according to CBS, the BBC's US partner.Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?23%▼1
Al Jazeera · 3 hr agoExplosions hit Iran’s Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes in HormuzSeveral explosions heard on Qeshm Island and in Bandar Lengeh as US media report US military strikes in Hormuz.US strike on Cuba by December 31?7%0
Al Jazeera · 6 hr agoIran war live: US carries out ‘defensive’ strikes in Strait of HormuzUS forces target Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz in "defensive" strikes following missile threats.Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?12%▼1
Every Iran question
26 MARKETSQUESTION30DYES24HVOL 24HCLOSES
Iran leadership change by December 31?IR13%▼1▼1$83KDec 31 ’27TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?IL · IR85%▲1▲1$77KNov 7TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?IL · IR65%▼5▼5$74KNov 15TradeUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?US · IR8%▲4▲4$63KDec 31 ’27TradeIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?IR30%00$60KJun 30 ’27TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?IL · IR98%00$58KNov 3TradeIran full airspace closure by December 31?IR36%00$51KDec 31 ’27TradeWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?US · IR13%00$48KJan 1 ’27TradeTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?US · IR5%00$47KDec 31 ’27TradeWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?IR · US19%00$42KDec 31TradeWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?US · IR36%00$41KDec 31TradeWill Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?US · IR37%00$41KDec 31TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?IL · IR87%00$40KNov 6TradePete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?US35%00$39KDec 31 ’27TradeWill there be no Hormuz agreement?IR93%00$36KNov 4TradeIran leadership change by November 30?IR7%00$33KNov 30TradeTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?IR27%00$32KDec 31TradeWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?IR5%00$29KNov 4TradeIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?IR · OM22%00$28KNov 30TradeWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?IR3%00$27KNov 4TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?IL · IR38%00$26KDec 31TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?IL · IR53%00$26KNov 30TradeIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?IR14%00$24KDec 31 ’27TradeWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?US · IR9%00$24KDec 31TradeWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?US · IR36%00$22KDec 31TradeIsraeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?IL36%00$19KDec 31Trade