Iran: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
Ongoing questions
- Iran leadership change by September 30?3 deadlines so far3%
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?5 deadlines so far1%
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?2 deadlines so far14%
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?6 deadlines so far99%
- Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?2 deadlines so far1%
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?2 deadlines so far98%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?17 deadlines so far2%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?5 deadlines so far1%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?3 deadlines so far1%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?2 deadlines so far1%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?5 deadlines so far12%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?9 deadlines so far94%
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?2 deadlines so far5%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?24h volume $344K16%
- Iran leadership change by September 30?24h volume $302K2%
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?24h volume $135K1%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?24h volume $121K60%
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?24h volume $119K1%
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?24h volume $118K1%
- Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?24h volume $96K1%
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?24h volume $87K14%
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?24h volume $77K6%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?24h volume $75K64%
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?24h volume $74K76%
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?24h volume $71K98%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?24h volume $64K18%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?24h volume $61K1%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?24h volume $57K1%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?24h volume $56K1%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?24h volume $55K34%
- Iran leadership change by December 31?24h volume $54K14%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?24h volume $54K23%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?24h volume $52K1%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?24h volume $51K72%
- Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?24h volume $51K1%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?24h volume $51K7%
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?24h volume $50K26%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?24h volume $49K11%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?24h volume $48K77%
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?24h volume $47K5%
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?24h volume $47K12%
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?24h volume $47K6%
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?24h volume $46K88%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?24h volume $43K12%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?24h volume $43K11%
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?24h volume $42K19%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?24h volume $42K95%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?24h volume $41K3%
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?24h volume $41K84%
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30?24h volume $29K6%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISIran de-escalation basket: calm is priced, talks are notFive Iran contracts settling 30 September. Three are already decided and cost most of the money; two carry the whole trade. What $100 actually returns.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.