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Politics

Elections, leaders and votes, from Washington to Bucharest.

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● Lead story

Zuckerberg wins Meta deal to help him foot bill for possible California billionaire tax

California Governor Election Winner2 OUTCOMES

Xavier Becerra97%0 Steve Hilton3%0

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

97%

YES PRICE · LAST MONTH

100%50%

17 OctToday

$16K 24h · $2.3M total · closes Nov 4Trade

Subtopics

7 DESKS

US Midterms 202660 markets · $3.8M 24h2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House8%Trump60 markets · $808K 24hClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?5%Global Elections60 markets · $1.8M 24hWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?33%Europe60 markets · $505K 24hWill Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?70%Latin America60 markets · $595K 24hWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?65%Asia-Pacific41 markets · $262K 24hWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?63%Canada43 markets · $63K 24hWill NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?12%

Moving in Politics

24H CHANGE

▼19 ptsWill Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?17%$3K 24h ▼13 ptsParis curfew effectively lifted by October 24?2%$5K 24h ▼12 ptsWill Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?13%$88K 24h ▲10 ptsWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?53%$41K 24h ▲10 ptsWill Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?88%$42K 24h ▼9 ptsWill Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?9%$3K 24h ▲9 ptsWill US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?32%$2K 24h ▼9 ptsWill the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?16%$6K 24h

All questions

QUESTION30DYES24HVOL 24HCLOSES

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseUS Midterms 2026 · US8%00$1.2MNov 4Trade 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseUS Midterms 2026 · US69%▲3▲3$577KNov 4Trade Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US33%00$387KNov 4Trade Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?US Midterms 2026 · US93%▲1▲1$359KNov 4Trade Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Trump · US5%▼1▼1$266KJan 1 ’27Trade Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?US Midterms 2026 · US8%▼1▼1$224KNov 4Trade Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Europe · RS70%▲3▲3$205KOct 25Trade 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseUS Midterms 2026 · US24%▼2▼2$179KNov 4Trade Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Trump · US20%00$174KOct 31Trade Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Global Elections · RS71%▲6▲6$157KOct 25Trade Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?US Midterms 2026 · US69%▲2▲2$153KNov 4Trade Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US67%▼1▼1$144KNov 4Trade Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Asia-Pacific · TW63%▼2▼2$138KNov 29Trade Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US16%▼5▼5$124KNov 4Trade Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Global Elections · FR46%00$118KApr 19 ’27Trade Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US97%▲2▲2$117KNov 4Trade Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Latin America · BR65%▼6▼6$108KOct 26Trade Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Trump · US44%00$99KNov 30Trade Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Global Elections · RS13%▼12▼12$88KOct 25Trade Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US4%00$85KNov 4Trade Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Asia-Pacific · TW38%▲2▲2$77KNov 29Trade Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?US Midterms 2026 · US32%▼2▼2$75KNov 4Trade Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Europe · RS31%▼3▼3$74KOct 25Trade Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Latin America · BR30%▼2▼2$74KOct 26Trade Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Latin America · BR5%▼2▼2$73KOct 26Trade Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Latin America · BR1%00$71KOct 26Trade Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US38%▼1▼1$69KNov 4Trade Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US84%▲5▲5$69KNov 4Trade Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US63%▲1▲1$68KNov 4Trade Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Latin America · BR22%▲4▲4$66KOct 26Trade Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US71%▲1▲1$65KNov 4Trade Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US29%▼1▼1$58KNov 4Trade Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Global Elections · FR14%00$57KApr 19 ’27Trade Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Latin America · BR34%▲6▲6$52KOct 26Trade Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US73%▲2▲2$49KNov 4Trade Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US70%00$49KNov 4Trade Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Global Elections · BG12%▲2▲2$48KOct 26Trade Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?US Midterms 2026 · US28%▼2▼2$46KNov 4Trade Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Global Elections · US31%▲1▲1$45KNov 4Trade Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Global Elections · FR5%00$43KApr 19 ’27Trade

Timelines

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms3 OUTCOMES

Democrats Sweep69%▲3 R Senate, D House24%▼2 Republicans Sweep8%0

Which party will win the House in 2026?2 OUTCOMES

Democratic Party93%▲1 Republican Party8%▼1

Texas Senate Election Winner2 OUTCOMES

James Talarico (D)67%▼1 Ken Paxton (R)33%0

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner2 OUTCOMES

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia70%▲3 Student List – Students Win31%▼3

Related news

Al Jazeera · 1 hr agoMichigan voters closely divided between Rogers and El-Sayed Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?69%▲2

BBC News · 1 hr agoTrump says Musk has restored Ukraine's access after Starlink row Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?4%0

Al Jazeera · 2 hr agoThousands gather at final student-led rally ahead of Serbia election Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?16%▼9

BBC News · 3 hr ago'This is despicable': Amy Acton responds to Ohio attack ad featuring her estranged mother Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?16%▼5

BBC News · 3 hr agoParis extends curfew as Marseille and Lyon ban protests after riots Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?2%▼13

BBC News · 4 hr agoZuckerberg wins Meta deal to help him foot bill for possible California billionaire tax Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?97%0

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