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Governments, elections and leaders across Europe.

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Top question

BY 24H VOLUME

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

70%▲3 today · Likely

YES PRICE · LAST MONTH

100%50%

17 OctToday

$205K 24h · $1.3M total · closes Oct 25Trade

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner2 OUTCOMES

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia70%▲3 Student List – Students Win31%▼3

France declares state of emergency by…2 DEADLINES

Oct 317%▼3 Dec 3119%▲4

French Presidential Election First Round Winner6 OUTCOMES

Marine Le Pen84%▼2 Édouard Philippe8%0 Jean-Luc Mélenchon4%▼1 David Lisnard3%0 Raphaël Glucksmann2%▲1 Jordan Bardella1%0

Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?6 OUTCOMES

40-45%34%▲2 35-40%21%▲4 45-50%20%▲3 50% or more16%▼9 30-35%6%▲4 less than 30%3%▲3

News on Europe

Al Jazeera · 2 hr agoThousands gather at final student-led rally ahead of Serbia electionThe student movement aims to end Vucic's 14 years of rule at Sunday's vote, as he holds a rival rally across town.Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?16%▼9

BBC News · 3 hr agoParis extends curfew as Marseille and Lyon ban protests after riotsProtests will only be allowed in some towns and cities if organised by unions, and top museums will be closed on Saturday.Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?2%▼13

Every Europe question

60 MARKETS

QUESTION30DYES24HVOL 24HCLOSES

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS70%▲3▲3$205KOct 25Trade Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS31%▼3▼3$74KOct 25Trade France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?FR7%▼3▼3$42KOct 31Trade Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?HU26%▲4▲4$18KDec 31 ’27Trade Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?GB90%00$16KDec 31 ’27Trade Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?RS17%▲1▲1$13KOct 25Trade Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR84%▼2▼2$9KApr 18 ’27Trade France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?FR10%▼5▼5$7KNov 30Trade Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS16%▼9▼9$6KOct 25Trade Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES15%00$6KNov 30Trade Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?FR2%▼13▼13$5KOct 24Trade Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR4%▼1▼1$4KApr 18 ’27Trade Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES85%▲2▲2$4KNov 30Trade Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?ES47%▲6▲6$4KJan 15 ’27Trade Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?RS18%00$4KMay 2 ’27Trade France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?FR19%▲4▲4$3KDec 31Trade Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?DE9%▼9▼9$3KOct 30Trade Macron out by December 31, 2026?FR4%00$3KDec 31Trade Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?US · FR · DE79%00$3KOct 20Trade France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?FR3%00$3KDec 31Trade Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?GB17%▼19▼19$3KApr 1 ’27Trade Will PP win the most seats in Valladolid in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES95%——$3KNov 30Trade Will the Student List win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS21%▲4▲4$3KOct 25Trade Luke Campbell arrested by December 31?9%00$3KDec 31 ’27Trade Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election?RS2%00$3KMay 2 ’27Trade Will PP win the most seats in Zaragoza in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES92%——$2KNov 30Trade Lecornu out as French PM by October 31, 2026?FR5%00$2KOct 31Trade Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?ES62%00$2KJan 31 ’27Trade Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS · US32%▲9▲9$2KOct 25Trade Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS34%▲2▲2$2KOct 25Trade Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?13%▲5▲5$2KDec 31Trade Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR8%00$2KApr 18 ’27Trade Will the Student List win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS20%▲3▲3$2KOct 25Trade Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?FR83%——$2KNov 7Trade No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?ES3%——$2KDec 31 ’27Trade Will PP win the most seats in Zamora in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES98%——$2KNov 30Trade Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR2%▲1▲1$2KApr 18 ’27Trade Will the Student List win less than 30% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS3%▲3▲3$2KOct 25Trade French election called by December 31, 2026?FR6%00$2KDec 31Trade Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS · US35%▲3▲3$2KOct 25Trade Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR17%00$2KApr 18 ’27Trade France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?FR2%00$2KNov 15Trade Romanian parliament dissolved by December 31?RO2%00$2KDec 31 ’27Trade Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?ES4%▼1▼1$2KOct 31Trade Will Vladan Petrov win the next Serbia presidential election?RS21%00$2KMay 2 ’27Trade Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR13%00$2KApr 18 ’27Trade Will the Student List win 30-35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?RS6%▲4▲4$1KOct 25Trade Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?NL2%——$1KJan 1 ’27Trade Will PP win the most seats in Málaga in the 2026 Spanish general election?ES96%——$1KNov 30Trade Will David Lisnard win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR3%00$1KApr 18 ’27Trade Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?FR9%▼5▼5$1KOct 24Trade Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?ES81%▼2▼2$1KJan 1 ’27Trade Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?FR56%00$1KOct 31Trade Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?GB9%00$1KDec 31Trade Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR1%00$1KApr 18 ’27Trade Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?GB18%00$1KNov 13Trade Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?GB18%——$1KApr 1 ’27Trade Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?DE65%00$1KDec 31 ’27Trade Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?FR14%00$1KApr 18 ’27Trade Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?FR12%00$1KOct 31Trade