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Economy

Rates, oil, inflation and markets, with the odds traders are paying.

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● Lead story

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Traders say 94%.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates…3 DEADLINES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
94%
YES PRICE · LAST MONTH
100%50%
23 SeptToday
$1.3M 24h · $16.7M total · closes Oct 20Trade

Subtopics

8 DESKS
Fed Rates31 markets · $2.5M 24hWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?94%Inflation60 markets · $96K 24hWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?5%Oil25 markets · $463K 24hWill oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?4%Trade War39 markets · $5K 24hUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?4%Stocks33 markets · $63K 24hNYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?11%S&P 5009 markets · $3K 24hWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?5%IPOs19 markets · $118K 24hWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?86%Central Banks37 markets · $163K 24hWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?20%

Moving in Economy

24H CHANGE
▲18 ptsWill South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?80%$2K 24h▲16 ptsReserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?85%$2K 24h▼12 ptsWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?28%$44K 24h▼10 ptsNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?33%$8K 24h▲10 ptsReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?65%$8K 24h▼7 ptsWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6%$627K 24h▼7 ptsWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?72%$93K 24h▲7 ptsWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?68%$32K 24h

All questions

QUESTION30DYES24HVOL 24HCLOSES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Rates · US94%▲6▲6$1.3MOct 20TradeWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Fed Rates · US6%▼7▼7$627KOct 20TradeWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Fed Rates · US72%▼7▼7$93KDec 20TradeAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?Fed Rates · US75%▼6▼6$93KDec 10TradeWill oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · US4%00$47KNov 2TradeWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Fed Rates · US54%00$47KDec 31TradeWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Fed Rates · US28%▼12▼12$44KJan 20 ’27TradeWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Central Banks · RU20%▼1▼1$44KOct 24TradeWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Central Banks · RU80%▲3▲3$39KOct 24TradeWill there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · IR64%00$37KOct 23TradeWill there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · IR61%00$35KNov 4TradeWill there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · IR32%00$33KOct 23TradeWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Fed Rates · US24%▲6▲6$32KDec 20TradeWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Fed Rates · US68%▲7▲7$32KJan 20 ’27TradeHouthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?Oil · YE16%00$31KOct 31TradeWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Fed Rates · US97%00$29KJan 1 ’27TradeWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Fed Rates · US3%▲1▲1$28KDec 20TradeWill oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · US65%▲4▲4$28KNov 2TradeWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Fed Rates · US25%▲4▲4$26KDec 31TradeUS imports Russian diesel by December 31?Oil · US · RU79%▲6▲6$20KDec 31 ’27TradeWill oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · US30%00$20KNov 2TradeWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?IPOs86%00$20KDec 31TradeWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?IPOs18%▼4▼4$19KJan 1 ’28TradeWill oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · US6%00$19KNov 2TradeWill there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · IR1%00$19KOct 23TradeWill there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · IR1%00$18KOct 23TradeWill oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · US2%00$18KNov 2TradeWill oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · US4%▲1▲1$18KNov 2TradeWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Fed Rates · US17%00$16KDec 31TradeWill the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Oil · NL · IR32%00$16KDec 31TradeWill the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Fed Rates · US17%00$15KDec 9TradeStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Oil · IR6%00$15KNov 30TradeWill oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Oil · US30%▼3▼3$14KNov 2TradeWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?IPOs28%▲3▲3$14KJan 1 ’28TradeUS imports Russian diesel by November 30?Oil · US · RU71%▲2▲2$14KNov 30TradeWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?Inflation5%00$13KJan 19 ’27TradeWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?IPOs20%▲4▲4$12KJan 1 ’28TradeWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Central Banks · CA81%00$12KOct 28TradeWill oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Oil · US61%▲1▲1$12KNov 2TradeWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Central Banks · CA18%▲3▲3$11KOct 28Trade

Timelines

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps…3 DEADLINES
Bank of Russia decision in October?2 OUTCOMES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by…2 DEADLINES

Guides

GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.