Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
This is the January 1, 2027 deadline of an ongoing question. See the current market →
7%chance, according to the market
Backed by $51K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Sep 9 the market put this at 7%.
Sep 9now 7%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 13:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket