Oil: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
Ongoing questions
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?8 deadlines so far1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?3 deadlines so far99%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?2 deadlines so far99%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?5 deadlines so far2%
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?3 deadlines so far16%
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?2 deadlines so far1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?2 deadlines so far1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?3 deadlines so far32%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?2 deadlines so far1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?2 deadlines so far10%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?2 deadlines so far5%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?2 deadlines so far9%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?2 deadlines so far15%
- Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?2 deadlines so far4%
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?2 deadlines so far32%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?2 deadlines so far3%
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?2 deadlines so far31%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?2 deadlines so far1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?2 deadlines so far4%
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?4 deadlines so far12%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?24h volume $264K99%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?24h volume $135K1%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?24h volume $69K2%
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?24h volume $60K16%
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?24h volume $53K1%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?24h volume $52K1%
- Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?24h volume $49K16%
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?24h volume $43K12%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?24h volume $41K32%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?24h volume $40K18%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?24h volume $40K1%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?24h volume $39K11%
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?24h volume $36K13%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?24h volume $34K44%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?24h volume $33K11%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?24h volume $33K10%
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?24h volume $31K53%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?24h volume $30K5%
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?24h volume $29K68%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?24h volume $28K7%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?24h volume $25K9%
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?24h volume $21K27%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?24h volume $20K15%
- Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?24h volume $20K4%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?24h volume $16K11%
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?24h volume $16K32%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?24h volume $16K3%
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?24h volume $16K31%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?24h volume $13K41%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?24h volume $12K4%
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?24h volume $11K12%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.