Fed Rates: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
Ongoing questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far1%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far44%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far1%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far55%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far1%
- Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?3 deadlines so far1%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume $393K1%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume $205K1%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume $189K55%
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $170K1%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume $168K44%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?24h volume $153K1%
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $106K1%
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $76K1%
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $47K1%
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $40K1%
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?24h volume $26K17%
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $25K1%
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $23K1%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?24h volume $22K31%
- Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?24h volume $21K1%
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?24h volume $19K2%
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $17K95%
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?24h volume $16K17%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?24h volume $16K43%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?24h volume $14K68%
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?24h volume $13K1%
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $12K1%
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?24h volume $11K7%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?24h volume $11K2%
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $11K1%
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?24h volume $10K1%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.