Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
4%chance, according to the market
Backed by $11K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 11 the market put this at 8%.
Aug 11now 4%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-08 20:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket