● Lead story
Ukraine hit by strikes after Russia agrees to new peace talks
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
7%
YES PRICE · LAST MONTH
100%50%
11 OctToday
$42K 24h · $457K total · closes Oct 31Trade
World Map / War & Geopolitics
War & Geopolitics
Ceasefires, strikes and standoffs, priced by people with money on the outcome.
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Subtopics
15 DESKSIran36 markets · $1.5M 24hKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?9%Israel & Middle East7 markets · $340K 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?83%Gaza & Hamas23 markets · $5K 24hWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?6%Lebanon & Syria50 markets · $22K 24hWill Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?4%Middle East60 markets · $3M 24hUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?98%Iraq & the Gulf28 markets · $54K 24hWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?4%Yemen & Red Sea38 markets · $128K 24hWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?22%Turkey18 markets · $3K 24hIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?10%Pakistan & Afghanistan22 markets · $4K 24hPakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?4%Russia x Ukraine33 markets · $1M 24hNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?20%NATO & Russia18 markets · $22K 24hNATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?25%China & Taiwan42 markets · $175K 24hWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%Venezuela22 markets · $86K 24hWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?77%World Conflicts7 markets · $427K 24hTrump out as President before 2027?4%Africa27 markets · $12K 24hWill Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?21%
Moving in War
24H CHANGE▲48 ptsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?62%$88K 24h▲39 ptsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?89%$10K 24h▲21 ptsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?92%$10K 24h▼13 ptsWill CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?17%$3K 24h▲12 ptsNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?20%$296K 24h▲11 ptsUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?98%$810K 24h▲10 ptsNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?36%$86K 24h▲9 ptsUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?92%$337K 24h
All questions
QUESTION30DYES24HVOL 24HCLOSES
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Middle East · US · IR98%▲11▲11$810KOct 22TradeWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Middle East · IL30%▲3▲3$611KOct 28TradeUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Middle East · US · IR92%▲9▲9$337KOct 24TradeNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU20%▲12▲12$296KOct 31TradeUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Middle East · US · IR77%▲8▲8$252KOct 31TradeTrump out as President before 2027?World Conflicts · US4%▼1▼1$152KDec 31TradeWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Middle East · US · IR17%00$140KDec 31TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Israel & Middle East · IL · IR83%▲2▲2$114KOct 31TradePutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU2%00$108KDec 31TradeUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World Conflicts · US · IR8%▼1▼1$100KOct 31TradeWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?China & Taiwan · CN · TW2%00$91KDec 31TradeWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU · UA62%▲48▲48$88KOct 31TradeNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU36%▲10▲10$86KDec 31TradeUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Middle East · US · IR74%▲7▲7$82KNov 4TradeXi Jinping out before 2027?World Conflicts · CN3%00$80KDec 31TradeKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Iran · IR9%00$80KDec 31 ’27TradeWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Iran · IR7%00$75KNov 4TradeWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Iran · IL76%00$74KJan 1 ’27TradeUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Middle East · US · IR82%▲6▲6$74KOct 28TradeWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Israel & Middle East · IL70%▲1▲1$72KOct 28TradeUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Iran · US · IR35%00$71KDec 31TradeKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?World Conflicts · KP5%00$68KDec 31TradeWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Middle East · IR86%▼1▼1$66KDec 31TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Israel & Middle East · IL · IR49%00$66KDec 31TradeWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Iran · US · IR35%——$60KDec 31TradeRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU · UA2%00$57KOct 31TradeIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Iran · IR · OM12%00$56KOct 31TradeIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Iran · IR25%00$56KJun 30 ’27TradeWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Middle East · IL16%▲1▲1$55KOct 28TradeUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Middle East · US · IR2%▲1▲1$53KOct 31TradeWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Middle East · IR6%00$49KDec 31TradeWill a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Iran · US · IR13%00$48KJan 1 ’27TradeTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Iran · US · IR5%00$47KDec 31 ’27TradeUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Iran · US · IR26%00$46KNov 30TradeWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Iran · IR · US19%00$42KDec 31TradeRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine · RU · UA7%▲2▲2$42KOct 31TradeIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Iran · IR14%▼1▼1$42KDec 31 ’27TradeWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Iran · US · IR36%00$41KDec 31TradeWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Middle East · IL2%▼1▼1$41KOct 28TradeIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Israel & Middle East · IL · IR94%——$41KOct 24TradeTimelines
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Guides
GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.