Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%chance, according to the market
Backed by $269K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 17%.
Aug 4now 17%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISIran de-escalation basket: calm is priced, talks are notFive Iran contracts settling 30 September. Three are already decided and cost most of the money; two carry the whole trade. What $100 actually returns.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 13:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket