Economy › Fed Rates

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

This is the December 9, 2026 deadline of an ongoing question. See the current market →

31%chance, according to the market

Backed by $22K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Aug 14 the market put this at 69%.

Aug 14now 31%

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Price as of 2026-09-18 13:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket