Inflation: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
Ongoing questions
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?24h volume $20K1%
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?24h volume $13K5%
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.3% and 1.5%?24h volume $12K1%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.