Global Elections: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $1.1M80%
- Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $569K1%
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?24h volume $230K50%
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?24h volume $173K51%
- Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $171K1%
- Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $167K99%
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24h volume $161K43%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24h volume $117K56%
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $109K18%
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $101K38%
- Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $93K1%
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $70K1%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?24h volume $69K28%
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24h volume $69K1%
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?24h volume $64K67%
- Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?24h volume $63K1%
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24h volume $55K1%
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $43K2%
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?24h volume $38K2%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24h volume $36K76%
- Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $36K1%
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?24h volume $31K2%
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $27K1%
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?24h volume $26K3%
- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?24h volume $26K2%
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?24h volume $25K29%
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $25K1%
- Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $24K1%
- Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?24h volume $23K31%
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $23K13%
- Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $22K1%
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?24h volume $22K7%
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?24h volume $22K16%
- Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?24h volume $21K93%
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?24h volume $19K7%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.