Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
65%chance, according to the market
Backed by $31K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 60%.
Aug 4now 65%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-13 17:27 UTC · Source: Polymarket