Trump: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?24h volume $198K8%
- Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $32K1%
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?24h volume $30K93%
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?24h volume $28K1%
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $17K1%
- Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $14K1%
- Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $13K1%
- Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $13K1%
- Trump out as President before 2027?24h volume $12K6%
- Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24h volume $11K1%
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?24h volume $11K1%
- Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?24h volume $11K4%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISWhat the market prices for Trump's $5,000 dividendTrump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win Congress. The market prices it at 5c, and its rules don't require the sweep most readings of it assume.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.