Politics › Trump

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

4%chance, according to the market

Backed by $19K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Aug 4 the market put this at 4%.

Aug 4now 4%

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.

Open in Telegram

Price as of 2026-08-08 06:58 UTC · Source: Polymarket