Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10%chance, according to the market
Backed by $15K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 13%.
Aug 4now 10%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 13:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket