Politics › Global Elections

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

42%chance, according to the market

Backed by $14K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Aug 4 the market put this at 41%.

Aug 4now 42%

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Price as of 2026-08-11 12:46 UTC · Source: Polymarket