Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
12%chance, according to the market
Backed by $28K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
We started recording this market's daily price today — the history will build from here.
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISCan the AfD actually take power in Saxony-Anhalt?The AfD won 39 of 83 seats and the market prices its candidate at 41.5c. The final ballot needs a majority of votes cast, and the other parties also hold 39.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-23 22:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket