Iran leadership change by December 31?
This is the January 1, 2027 deadline of an ongoing question. See the current market →
14%chance, according to the market
Backed by $55K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 8 the market put this at 24%.
Aug 8now 14%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISIran de-escalation basket: calm is priced, talks are notFive Iran contracts settling 30 September. Three are already decided and cost most of the money; two carry the whole trade. What $100 actually returns.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-21 12:25 UTC · Source: Polymarket