Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Right now · Deadline: October 28, 2026
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $12K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 6 the market put this at 6%.
Aug 6now 1%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- September 16, 2026Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No$56.3M
- October 28, 2026CurrentWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?1%$1.5M
- December 9, 2026Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?2%$238K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-09-20 13:23 UTC · Source: Polymarket