Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Right now · Deadline: September 16, 2026
2%chance, according to the market
Backed by $358K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 2%.
Aug 4now 2%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- September 16, 2026CurrentWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2%$4.3M
- October 28, 2026Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6%$117K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-06 17:37 UTC · Source: Polymarket