Will the Fed hike again in October or December?

The Fed raised rates on 16 September 2026, and the argument has moved straight to the next one. With another hike priced at 80.5% for this year, the open question on the prediction markets is timing: the 28 October meeting, the 9 December meeting, or neither.

Prices are from Polymarket and Oddzy on 17 September 2026. Check the live price before acting. Market analysis, not financial advice.

What did the Fed do on 16 September?

It raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023, on a 12–0 vote. Chair Kevin Warsh tied the move to a "timelier return" to 2% inflation, with consumer prices up 3.4% a year in August and the Gulf oil shock still feeding through.

The projections mattered more than the move. The median official now sees rates at 4.1% by year end, one more quarter-point hike. 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more: twelve see two hikes in total this year, four see three, and two think September was enough.

The September contract had been climbing into the decision, though not in a straight line:

The run-up to this decision is covered in why the Fed market priced a hike after negative payrolls.

What does the market price for the next hike?

The last two rows describe nearly the same world. No on "another hike" pays if the Fed makes no further move from 17 September through the December meeting. The exactly-one bucket on the hike-count board pays if September's hike is the only one in 2026. The bucket is cheaper, at 18.5c against 19.5c, and has about four times the volume, so it is the better way to hold that view. Both count emergency hikes.

Two rule details before trading any of these:

• The October contract is the 25 bps bracket only. A 50 bps move resolves it No. That bracket trades under a cent, so the risk is small but real.
• October has no new projections or dot plot. The last big inflation print before it is September CPI, on 14 October at 12:30 UTC.

Are October and December substitutes?

Not according to the meeting markets. A common rule of thumb says the Fed hikes, pauses, then hikes again, so October and December are either/or. But 46.5c + 68.5c = 115c: two outcomes priced above a dollar together cannot be mutually exclusive.

Put the three boards together:

P(hike in October or December) ≈ 80.5%, so P(both) ≈ 47.3% + 70.1% − 80.5% ≈ 37%

That uses the 25 bps and 50 bps brackets at each meeting. The meeting markets are pricing better than a one-in-three chance of back-to-back hikes.

The hike-count board disagrees. Three or more hikes in 2026, which is September plus both remaining meetings, sums to 16.9c across its buckets, so about 17%. Twenty points apart on the same event.

We cannot tell you which board is right. The October market is by far the deepest, with over $800,000 traded in the last day, while the December market took about $41,000 and the three-hike bucket about $10,000. What the gap does tell you:

• If the "one meeting, not both" rule matches your view, December at 68.5c looks expensive next to October.
• If the meeting boards are right, the three-hike bucket at 15.1c is the cheap expression of back-to-back hikes. It is thin, so use a limit order.
• Buying both meeting markets is not a mistake by default. It pays twice if the Fed hikes at both meetings, and the market prices that at about a third. The mistake is buying both believing they hedge each other.

Three single views

October, at 46.5c: for anyone who expects the energy shock to stay hot. The Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year end is 17.5c, and WTI was around $102 on 17 September. If the September CPI print on 14 October comes in hot, this is the contract that should reprice first, and you can take profit before the meeting instead of holding through it. A win roughly doubles the stake. It is also the most liquid market on this page.

December, at 68.5c: for anyone who expects the Fed to wait a meeting. A win returns about 46%. Its hidden risk is not a peaceful autumn. It is an October hike followed by a December pause, which the meeting boards price at around 10%.

No more hikes, at 18.5c: for anyone who expects the oil shock to ease. If Hormuz reopens and oil falls back, autumn inflation cools and a Fed that has just hiked has no reason to go again. A win pays about 5.4x. It is also the same world as the peace-insurance leg in the oil-shock basket, so holding both is one view twice.

A 100-dollar split if you have no strong timing view

• $60 on October (46.5c): a near, dated catalyst, and the deepest book.
• $20 on no more hikes (the exactly-one bucket, 18.5c): wins exactly where October loses to a quiet autumn.
• $20 kept in cash until after the 14 October CPI print, to add to whichever side got cheaper.
• Nothing on December, because it is the outcome this split is betting against.

The first two lines are the October-or-never basket, weighted 75/25. The cash stays outside it.

The losing row is not a tail. The market puts a December-only hike at about one in three, and a 50 bps October move also lands there. Each leg is bought at the market's own price, so the expected payout is about the $100 you started with, before spreads. The split pays only if your read on timing is better than the market's.

The calendar and the rules

• 14 October, 12:30 UTC: September CPI, the decision point for the cash and for taking profit early.
• 28 October: the October decision. The October leg settles, and a hike also settles the exactly-one bucket as a loss straight away.
• 9 December: the December decision. In a hold-then-hike world, both legs are gone by here.

No leverage is involved, but size this as money you can lose: see how to size a position. The thin boards on this page, the another-hike market and the three-hike bucket, will not fill a large order near the quoted price, as explained in why orders fill at a worse price. Read the full resolution rules on any bracket before you trade it.