Senate Control: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?24h volume $33K42%
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?24h volume $24K59%
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISWhat the market prices for Trump's $5,000 dividendTrump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win Congress. The market prices it at 5c, and its rules don't require the sweep most readings of it assume.
- ANALYSISWhy the House and Senate midterm markets are so far apartThe House trades at 87.5c and the Senate at 52.5c. The gap is the Senate map, and the price only works if every race moves with one national swing.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.