What are the 2028 presidential election odds right now?
· 6 MIN READ
Twenty-five months out, the market’s favourite to win the 2028 US presidential election is priced at about one in five. That number is the product of two separate bets, it hides a gap between the party and candidate boards, and it is shaped as much by the cost of locking money up until November 2028 as by anyone’s view of the race.
Key takeaways
- As of 5 October 2026 on Oddzy, JD Vance is the favourite to win the 2028 US presidential election at 20.05¢, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.8¢ and Jon Ossoff at 10.85¢.
- Vance’s 20.05¢ is two bets multiplied: 50.25¢ to win the Republican nomination, and about a 40% chance of winning the general election if he does.
- The Republican candidate prices sum to 34.5¢, exactly the Republican party price, while the Democratic candidates sum to 50.9¢ against a party price of 64.5¢ that had not traded in 24 hours.
- The 2028 presidential market resolves when AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same person, or on whoever is inaugurated on 20 January 2029 if they never agree.
- Holding the NO side of a 1¢ longshot until November 2028 earns about 0.6% a year, less than cash, which is why long-dated longshots tend to stay overpriced.
As of 5 October 2026 on Oddzy, the 2028 presidential election odds put JD Vance in front at 20.05¢ — a one-in-five chance — with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.8¢ and Jon Ossoff at 10.85¢. The election is 25 months away and both parties’ nominations are still open, so the board is pricing a field, not a race.
Prices below are from Oddzy at 07:13 UTC on 5 October 2026. Each one is the price of a share that pays $1 if that person wins and $0 if they don’t.
What are the 2028 presidential election odds right now?
Vance leads, the Democrats are split, and no one is above 21¢. Across all the candidate markets, about $713 million has traded since they opened, $389,000 of it in the 24 hours to this snapshot.
| Candidate | Wins presidency | Wins GOP nomination | 24-hour volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20.05¢ | 50.25¢ | $86,983 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14.8¢ | — | $58,365 |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.85¢ | — | $672 |
| Marco Rubio | 9.05¢ | 15.35¢ | $2,129 |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.05¢ | — | $16,295 |
| Kamala Harris | 3.95¢ | — | $36,350 |
| James Talarico | 1.25¢ | — | $75,778 |
| Donald Trump | 1.15¢ | 1.95¢ | $7,210 |
By party, the Democrats were at 64.5¢ and the Republicans at 34.5¢.
Why is the favourite only a one-in-five chance?
Because Vance has to win twice. The market gives him 50.25¢ to win the Republican nomination, and 20.05¢ to win the presidency. Divide one by the other and you get the market’s implied chance that he wins the general election if he is the nominee: about 40%.
That conditional figure is the more useful number. It says the market is not doubting Vance as a Republican so much as doubting a Republican in 2028.
Rubio’s pair implies 59% — a stronger nominee than Vance. Both Rubio markets traded under $2,200 in the last 24 hours, so treat that as a thin-book artefact before you treat it as an opinion. A price on a market nobody is trading is the last thing someone was willing to do, not what the crowd thinks today.
Do the party and candidate prices agree?
On the Republican side, exactly. Vance, Rubio, Tucker Carlson, Ron DeSantis, Trump and Thomas Massie sum to 34.5¢ — the Republican party price to the tenth of a cent.
On the Democratic side, no. The thirteen Democrats priced at half a cent or more sum to 50.9¢, against 64.5¢ for the party. Either the market expects the nominee to be someone who barely trades today, or the party price is stale: the Democratic party market had no trades at all in the 24 hours to this snapshot. The candidate markets are where the money is, and they are the better read.
Why do some candidates trade far more than their price suggests?
Because their price moves on news that is not about 2028. Talarico, at 1.25¢, traded $75,778 in a day — more than Harris, and about 36 times Rubio. He is the Democratic nominee in the Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton on 3 November 2026, and a win there would make him a national name overnight. Ossoff is defending his Georgia Senate seat the same day. Those markets are, in effect, side bets on the midterms; the arithmetic of that election is in why the House and Senate markets are so far apart.
How does the 2028 market decide who won?
It resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If the three have not agreed by 20 January 2029, it resolves to whoever is inaugurated. The election itself is on 7 November 2028.
The nomination market is narrower: it pays only if the named person wins and accepts the Republican nomination, and a later replacement of the nominee does not change the result. How these rules play out on a real election night is covered in how election prediction markets decide who won.
What does it cost to hold a position until November 2028?
Twenty-five months of your money doing nothing else. Cash is the yardstick — tokenized Treasury funds paid roughly 4–5% a year in September 2026, as covered in what your stablecoins actually earn.
| Position, held to the result | Price | Return if right | Per year, over 25 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO on Vance | 79.95¢ | 25.1% | 11.3% |
| NO on Talarico | 98.75¢ | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| YES on every priced candidate | 91.55¢ | 9.2% | 4.3% |
The middle row is the important one. Nobody locks up 98.75¢ for two years to earn 1.25¢, so nobody sells the longshots down to their fair price, and they stay expensive. A 1¢ price on a two-year market is partly the cost of time, not a 1% forecast.
The bottom row is not free money either. The 54 priced candidates sum to 91.55¢, but those are midpoints, the asks are higher, and the 8.45¢ gap over 25 months is roughly what cash pays anyway. The same logic is worked through at the near-certain end in whether 99¢ shares are free money.
Before you take a position
You do not have to wait for the result. Every 2028 market can be sold before it resolves, at the best bid, which on a market trading a few hundred dollars a day can sit several cents under the card. Size for a total loss, because a named candidate who never runs simply resolves NO. The full board is on the global elections topic page.
Common questions
- Can Donald Trump run for president again in 2028?
- Not under the 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, which says no person shall be elected president more than twice. The market agrees: as of 5 October 2026 on Oddzy, Trump was priced at 1.15¢ to win the 2028 election and 1.95¢ to win the Republican nomination. Part of those cents is the cost of tying up a dollar for two years to bet against him, so read them as a ceiling on the market’s belief rather than a forecast.
- Who is the Democratic frontrunner for 2028 according to prediction markets?
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, priced at 14.8¢ to win the presidency as of 5 October 2026 on Oddzy, followed by Jon Ossoff at 10.85¢ and Gavin Newsom at 8.05¢. No Democrat is above 15¢, and the thirteen Democrats priced at half a cent or more add up to only about 51¢, so the market sees a wide-open field rather than a frontrunner.
- Are the 2028 odds on Oddzy the same as on Polymarket?
- Yes. Every market on Oddzy is a Polymarket market, so you trade against the same order book and see the same prices, and the shares settle on-chain on Polygon. A difference of a fraction of a cent between two screens is usually the gap between a midpoint price and the last trade, not a different market.
- Do I have to hold a 2028 election position until the result?
- No. A prediction market share can be sold to another trader at any time while the market is open, so you can take a profit or cut a loss long before November 2028. What you receive is the best bid at that moment, which on a thinly traded candidate can be several cents below the price shown on the card.
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