Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Right now · Deadline: November 8, 2026
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $21K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 26 the market put this at 5%.
Aug 26now 1%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- October 8, 2026Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?No$553K
- November 8, 2026CurrentFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?1%$167K
- January 8, 2027Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?12%$282K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-09-25 07:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket