Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
2%chance, according to the market
Backed by $11K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 3%.
Aug 4now 2%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-21 03:54 UTC · Source: Polymarket