Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Right now · Deadline: January 29, 2027
4%chance, according to the market
Backed by $8K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 19 the market put this at 14%.
Aug 19now 4%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- October 8, 2026Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?No$553K
- January 29, 2027CurrentFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?4%$403K
- January 29, 2027Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No$211K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDEIs buying 99¢ shares on Polymarket free money?A 99¢ share pays 1¢ if you’re right and loses 99¢ if you’re wrong. The break-even odds, the real annual return, and what makes near-certain shares go to zero.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Price as of 2026-10-29 15:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket