Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
This is the December 9, 2026 deadline of an ongoing question. See the current market →
2%chance, according to the market
Backed by $10K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 22 the market put this at 2%.
Aug 22now 2%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 13:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket