Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?
Right now · Deadline: November 1, 2026
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $11K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 12 the market put this at 5%.
Oct 12now 1%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- November 1, 2026CurrentMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?1%$139K
- January 1, 2027Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?14%$774K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-27 08:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket