Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
26%chance, according to the market
Backed by $50K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 22 the market put this at 26%.
Aug 22now 26%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-07 07:28 UTC · Source: Polymarket