Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: September 19, 2026
84%chance, according to the market
Backed by $85K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Sep 14 the market put this at 84%.
Sep 14now 84%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- September 19, 2026CurrentIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?84%$106K
- October 1, 2026Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?79%$98K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-09-15 09:14 UTC · Source: Polymarket