Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
79%chance, according to the market
Backed by $46K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
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How this resolves
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-08 08:48 UTC · Source: Polymarket