Iran

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?

84%chance, according to the market

Backed by $85K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Sep 14 the market put this at 84%.

Sep 14now 84%

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Price as of 2026-09-15 09:14 UTC · Source: Polymarket