What does $100 actually return?

The basket splits your stake evenly, 20 percent per contract, and each portion buys shares at that contract's price. If all five come good it returns $224.40. The three near-decided contracts return $67.71 between them, the blockade returns $67.80 on its own, and talks return $88.89 because they are the cheapest thing in the basket. Blended probability across the five is 63.7 percent.

Why is the cheapest contract the most important one?

Because price is inverse to payout. Talks at 22.5 cents means a 20 dollar allocation buys 88.89 shares, so that one contract supplies 40 percent of the maximum return from 20 percent of the stake. The blockade at 29.5 cents does the same job to a slightly lesser degree. Between them those two contracts are 40 percent of your money and about 70 percent of the upside.

Is there any protection if fighting restarts?

No, and this is the main risk to understand. All five contracts pay on de-escalation: two ceasefires holding, airspace staying open, the blockade lifting, talks convening. A renewed US strike on Iranian soil would take the US-Iran ceasefire, the blockade and the talks contracts to zero, and would very likely close Iranian airspace too. That leaves roughly 23 to 44 dollars of your 100, depending on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire survives it.

Where would the next round of talks even happen?

Switzerland is the market's favourite at 8.5 cents, which is where the June round was held, followed by Pakistan at 4.8 and Qatar at 3.55. The same board prices no qualifying meeting at all by 30 September at 81.5 cents. Note also that the contract requires a fresh senior-level round: its text states that follow-on technical talks from the 22 June Switzerland round do not qualify by themselves, which is why the price stays low while working-level contact continues.

Are all five contracts liquid enough to trade?

Two of them are thin. The Israel-Iran ceasefire moved $4,272 in the last 24 hours and the airspace contract $7,580, against $171,699 for the US-Iran ceasefire and $128,051 for the blockade. At a 20 percent weight those two are fine at small size but will not absorb a large order, and an unfilled portion returns to your balance rather than moving into the other contracts.

Should I just buy the two live contracts instead?

It is the sharper version of the same view and the arithmetic favours it: 52 cents per share for a maximum of two dollars, against 318.5 cents for a maximum of five. You give up nothing in direction, because the three expensive contracts are not hedges — they pay in the same world the cheap ones do. What you give up is the small, high-probability return those three provide when nothing else moves.

ANALYSIS

Iran de-escalation basket: calm is priced, talks are not

August 27, 2026 · 8 MIN READ

The market has priced calm at around 90 cents and reconciliation at 22.5. This basket buys both, which means most of your stake goes on outcomes that are close to settled and the return lives in two contracts. Here is what each scenario pays.

Key takeaways

Three of the five contracts trade between 83.5c and 94.5c. They are 84% of the per-share cost and return 33.5 cents of profit — you are paying most of the money for answers the price already gives you.
The blockade and talks contracts cost 52 cents together and pay up to $2. That is a 285% return against 57% for the full five.
The most likely single outcome is that only the three near-decided contracts hit, returning $67.71 on $100 — a 32% loss, at roughly 38% probability.
Every contract in this basket pays on calm, so there is no hedge. A renewed US strike takes it to somewhere between $23 and $44.
The blockade is 29.5c for September but 70.55c for December, so this is a bet on speed, not on direction.

The Iran de-escalation basket holds five contracts, all settling by 30 September. Three of them are already close to decided. Two of them carry the entire trade. This is what each scenario returns and which prices to check first.

All figures are from Oddzy's market data as of 27 August 2026. Prices move daily — check the basket page before you buy.

What is in the basket?

Contract	Side	Weight	Price	Pays on $100
Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through 30 Sep	Yes	20%	88.5c	$22.60
Iran full airspace closure by 30 Sep	No	20%	94.5c	$21.16
US–Iran ceasefire continues through 30 Sep	Yes	20%	83.5c	$23.95
US announces end of the Iranian blockade	Yes	20%	29.5c	$67.80
Next round of US–Iran talks by 30 Sep	Yes	20%	22.5c	$88.89

$100 in · $224.40 back if all five hit · blended probability 63.7%.

Bought as single shares instead, the five cost $3.185 for a maximum of $5 — a 57% return.

What is the market actually pricing?

Read the column of prices from the top. Both ceasefires holding and the airspace staying open sit between 83.5c and 94.5c. A new round of talks sits at 22.5c.

That is the whole story of the Iran board in one line: the market has priced calm, and it has not priced reconciliation. The guns being quiet is near-consensus. The two sides sitting back down is a one-in-five shot.

The basket buys both. Which means most of what you pay goes on the part that is already settled.

Which contracts are you actually paying for?

Split the five by how decided they are.

The three calm contracts — 88.5c, 94.5c and 83.5c — sum to 266.5c of the 318.5c cost, or 84%. Bought alone as shares they return a maximum of $3.00, so their profit is 33.5 cents. You are handing over most of the money to be told something the price has already told you.

The two live contracts — the blockade at 29.5c and talks at 22.5c — cost 52 cents and return a maximum of $2.00.

Structure	Cost per share	Maximum	Return
All five	$3.185	$5.00	+57%
The three calm contracts	$2.665	$3.00	+12.6%
Blockade and talks only	$0.52	$2.00	+285%

The same imbalance shows up in the weighted basket: those two contracts are 40% of the stake and about 70% of the maximum payout, because a 20-dollar allocation buys far more shares at 22.5c than at 94.5c.

What does each scenario return?

Treating the prices as independent — which understates the clustered outcomes, since these events move together — the shape is this:

Scenario	Returns on $100	Rough odds
US strikes Iranian soil again	$23–$44	~17%
Only the three calm contracts hit	$67.71	~38%
Plus the blockade is called off	$135.51	~16%
Plus talks convene	$156.60	~11%
All five	$224.40	~5%

The second row is the one to sit with. The single most likely outcome is a 32% loss — the ceasefires hold, the airspace stays open, and neither the blockade nor the talks move. That is simply the last six weeks continuing, and it is the most probable thing that happens.

Note the top row too. Every contract here pays on calm, so this basket has no hedge. There is no leg that wins if fighting resumes.

Are you betting on direction or on speed?

Direction is close to consensus already. The market gives the blockade announcement 70.55% by 31 December against 29.5c for September:

31 Aug	7 Sep	14 Sep	21 Sep	30 Sep	31 Oct	31 Dec
2.80c	9.50c	20.5c	23.5c	29.5c	50.5c	70.55c

The market expects the blockade to end. It does not expect it this month. Buying the September contract is a claim that it happens faster than the board thinks — a much harder call than "tension is falling", and the one you are actually making.

The airspace contract runs the other way: full closure is 5.5c by 30 September but 17c by 31 December, so the No side decays from 94.5c to 83c. Your protection there is cheap precisely because the window is short.

What does the ceasefire contract actually cover?

Less than the name suggests, and it matters because this contract is a fifth of the basket.

It resolves No only if the United States lands an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran. Its text explicitly excludes naval gunfire and artillery, ground incursions, cyber operations, small-arms fire, intercepted munitions, and any threat or authorisation of force that is not carried out. It defines Iran as terrestrial territory and internal waters — airspace and maritime territory are outside it.

So the United States could enforce the naval blockade with gunfire against Iranian shipping in Iranian waters and this contract still pays Yes, while your blockade contract goes to zero. Reading these texts is not optional in a basket where two legs sound like the same event and are not — which is the whole point of reading the resolution rules before the price.

When do you find out you are wrong?

The shorter-dated blockade contracts are public checkpoints. If nothing has happened by 7 September, roughly 9 of your 29 points are gone with three weeks left; by 21 September the ladder sits only 6 points above where the month started. You do not need to wait for the deadline — mark the position against those rungs and sell what you no longer believe in while it still carries value.

For the talks contract, the thing to watch is the venue board. Switzerland leads at 8.5c, where the June round was held, then Pakistan at 4.8c and Qatar at 3.55c. A venue firming up is the earliest signal that the cheapest contract in this basket is about to work.

How big, and what might not fill?

Two contracts are thin. The Israel–Iran ceasefire moved $4,272 in the last 24 hours and the airspace contract $7,580, against $171,699 and $128,051 for the two US–Iran contracts. At a 20% weight they are fine at small size; a large order will leave them partly unfilled, and that portion returns to your balance rather than shifting into the others.

For sizing, treat this as roughly one position rather than five: three of the contracts move together with whether the US holds fire, which the market quotes on its own at 83.5c. Size it accordingly.

Open it, or trim it?

Open the de-escalation basket if you want the full expression — the small, likely return from the three calm contracts plus the leverage in the two live ones.

Trim it if you want the sharper version. The blockade and talks contracts alone are 52 cents for a maximum of $2, and the three expensive contracts are not protecting you — they pay in the same world. And if your view is the opposite one, it has its own escalation basket, built around the invasion contract at 12.5c.

This is market-price analysis, not financial advice and not a political position. Prediction markets carry the risk of losing your entire stake.

Common questions

What does $100 actually return?: The basket splits your stake evenly, 20 percent per contract, and each portion buys shares at that contract's price. If all five come good it returns $224.40. The three near-decided contracts return $67.71 between them, the blockade returns $67.80 on its own, and talks return $88.89 because they are the cheapest thing in the basket. Blended probability across the five is 63.7 percent.
Why is the cheapest contract the most important one?: Because price is inverse to payout. Talks at 22.5 cents means a 20 dollar allocation buys 88.89 shares, so that one contract supplies 40 percent of the maximum return from 20 percent of the stake. The blockade at 29.5 cents does the same job to a slightly lesser degree. Between them those two contracts are 40 percent of your money and about 70 percent of the upside.
Is there any protection if fighting restarts?: No, and this is the main risk to understand. All five contracts pay on de-escalation: two ceasefires holding, airspace staying open, the blockade lifting, talks convening. A renewed US strike on Iranian soil would take the US-Iran ceasefire, the blockade and the talks contracts to zero, and would very likely close Iranian airspace too. That leaves roughly 23 to 44 dollars of your 100, depending on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire survives it.
Where would the next round of talks even happen?: Switzerland is the market's favourite at 8.5 cents, which is where the June round was held, followed by Pakistan at 4.8 and Qatar at 3.55. The same board prices no qualifying meeting at all by 30 September at 81.5 cents. Note also that the contract requires a fresh senior-level round: its text states that follow-on technical talks from the 22 June Switzerland round do not qualify by themselves, which is why the price stays low while working-level contact continues.
Are all five contracts liquid enough to trade?: Two of them are thin. The Israel-Iran ceasefire moved $4,272 in the last 24 hours and the airspace contract $7,580, against $171,699 for the US-Iran ceasefire and $128,051 for the blockade. At a 20 percent weight those two are fine at small size but will not absorb a large order, and an unfilled portion returns to your balance rather than moving into the other contracts.
Should I just buy the two live contracts instead?: It is the sharper version of the same view and the arithmetic favours it: 52 cents per share for a maximum of two dollars, against 318.5 cents for a maximum of five. You give up nothing in direction, because the three expensive contracts are not hedges — they pay in the same world the cheap ones do. What you give up is the small, high-probability return those three provide when nothing else moves.