Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
34%chance, according to the market
Backed by $15K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
We started recording this market's daily price today — the history will build from here.
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISHow to hedge gold with Fed rate-hike marketsGold fell more than 2% on one payrolls print. A layered hedge on the Fed hike-count market costs about 4% of the position and covers most of a tightening shock.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 12:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket