Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12?
47%chance, according to the market
Backed by $23K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
We started recording this market's daily price today — the history will build from here.
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 12 '26 12:00 ET candle.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 12 '26 12:00 ET candle.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDEStablecoin yield: what your dollars actually earnHolding USDT pays nothing while ordinary dollars earn 4-5%. The reference rate, the three permissionless doors actually open, and what each charges in risk.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-11 17:59 UTC · Source: Polymarket