GOP House Seats: what the market says
Every question below is priced by people staking money on the answer. The percentage is the market's probability, and the volume tells you how much to trust it.
Ongoing questions
Guides
Our analysis and guides on this topic.
- ANALYSISWhat are the 2028 presidential election odds right now?JD Vance leads at 20¢, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is second at 14.8¢. What the 2028 markets price, whether the board adds up, and the cost of waiting until 2028.
- GUIDEHow do election prediction markets decide who won?Some election markets pay on a network race call, some on certification, some months later. How the rules decide, with live midterm and Brazil prices.
- ANALYSISWhat the market prices for Trump's $5,000 dividendTrump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win Congress. The market prices it at 5c, and its rules don't require the sweep most readings of it assume.