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Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?

Right now · Deadline: January 1, 2027

21%chance, according to the market

Backed by $13K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Nov 1 the market put this at 26%.

Nov 1now 21%

Every deadline so far

Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.

  1. November 1, 2026Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?No$35K
  2. January 1, 2027CurrentWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?21%$49K

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.

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Price as of 2026-11-03 21:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket