Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: December 1, 2026
98%chance, according to the market
Backed by $106K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 27 the market put this at 10%.
Oct 27now 96%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- December 1, 2026CurrentWill Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?98%$105K
- January 1, 2027Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?99%$40K
- April 1, 2027Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?98%$18K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-28 10:32 UTC · Source: Polymarket