Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Right now · Deadline: October 31, 2026
12%chance, according to the market
Backed by $56K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Sep 24 the market put this at 33%.
Sep 24now 12%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- August 15, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?No$241K
- September 1, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No$502K
- September 14, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?No$419K
- September 21, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?No$87K
- October 1, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No$652K
- October 31, 2026CurrentIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?12%$519K
- December 1, 2026Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?22%$150K
- January 1, 2027Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?36%$33K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket