Will the US invade Iran before 2027? What the market prices

Will the US invade Iran before 2027? As of 2 October 2026, the prediction market on that question trades at 14.5 cents — a 14.5% chance. It is the largest Iran contract on Oddzy, with $70.8 million traded in total and $529,614 in the last 24 hours.

All figures are from Oddzy’s market data as of 2 October 2026 unless stated. Prices move daily — check the market page before you trade.

What does the market price for a US invasion of Iran?

The market prices a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 14.5%, and that number has barely moved in two months. It was 16.5 cents on 4 August, touched a low of 12.5 cents on 27 August, peaked at 17.5 cents in mid-August, and has sat at 14.5 cents since 30 September.

That stability is the interesting part. In the same two months the US kept its naval blockade in place, struck Iranian air defences and tankers, and on 30 September President Trump said a decision between striking and negotiating would come “very soon.” None of that moved the invasion market by more than a few cents, because none of it is what the contract pays on.

What counts as an invasion under the rules?

The contract resolves YES only if the United States begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern time. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

Three phrases in that sentence do all the work:

• “Commences.” The trigger is the start of the offensive, not its success. A landing that is repelled on the first day still resolves the market YES.
• “Intended to establish control.” The aim has to be holding ground. Bombing, blockading and raiding are excluded by implication, not by name.
• “Any portion of Iran.” One island is enough. Territory counts as Iranian if Iran de facto controlled it on 4 November 2025, so disputed islands Iran administers — Abu Musa and the two Tunbs — are inside the definition.

This is a resolution-rules question before it is a geopolitical one. You can be right about the war and still lose on what the contract counted.

Why hasn’t seven months of war already settled it?

The war began with a US–Israeli air campaign on 28 February 2026, and an air campaign is not an offensive to hold ground. Polymarket ran an earlier contract on the same question, “Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?”, which resolved NO on $5.67 million of volume — a full month into the strikes.

The blockade, reinstated on 13 July according to the rules of the blockade markets, is the same story. Ships are stopped at sea. Nobody is taking territory. The market is pricing a step change in the kind of war, not a continuation of it.

What would actually make it resolve YES?

The clearest path is an amphibious or airborne operation to seize an island — Kharg, which handles most of Iran’s oil exports, is the one most discussed. A separate market asks whether Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by 31 December. It trades at 6.5 cents, against 14.5 for the invasion.

The gap is not a mispricing. The Kharg contract is much harder to win:

	Invasion before 2027	Kharg Island not under Iranian control by 31 Dec
Price	14.5¢	6.5¢
What triggers YES	An offensive to hold ground begins	Another force has established control
Raids and landings	Not addressed	Explicitly excluded
Bombardment or blockade	Does not qualify	Explicitly excluded
Where	Anywhere in Iran	Kharg only

An attempt on Kharg would almost certainly resolve the invasion market YES the day it began, and would only resolve the Kharg market YES if it succeeded and held. The 8-cent difference is the market’s estimate of everything else: offensives elsewhere, and offensives that start but do not finish by year-end. The October version of the Kharg market is at 1.85 cents.

The grey zone is a raid. A special-forces operation to seize enriched uranium is priced on its own market, US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 31 December, at 5.5 cents. Whether that kind of raid would also count as an invasion is not answered by the text. It would come down to the resolution process, and it is the outcome most likely to be disputed.

How does it sit against the rest of the Iran board?

Market	Price	What has to happen
US invades Iran before 2027	14.5¢	An offensive to control any part of Iran begins
Kharg Island not under Iranian control by 31 Dec	6.5¢	Another force establishes control of the island
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by 31 Dec	5.5¢	US takes physical custody, by deal or seizure
Iranian regime falls before 2027	6.5¢	Core structures of the Islamic Republic replaced
US announces end of the blockade by 31 Dec	53.6¢	An official announcement ending the naval blockade

Read together, the board prices a war that ends by negotiation more often than by escalation. An announced end to the blockade is close to even money by year-end; it was about 78 cents in mid-August and has drifted down since. The invasion price did not rise to meet it: the probability that left the blockade market went to a longer blockade, not into ground war.

What does each side pay?

Side	Price	Shares for $100	Paid if right	Profit
YES	14.5¢	689.66	$689.66	+$589.66
NO	85.5¢	116.96	$116.96	+$16.96

These are at the quoted price. You buy at the best offer on the book, not the midpoint, so your fill will be a little worse.

NO is the near-certain side, and it carries the usual trade-off of buying near-certain shares: a 17% return over three months if nothing happens, against a loss of 85.5 cents a share on one decision in Washington. YES is the cheap side. It pays almost seven times your stake, and it goes to zero on 31 December unless a ground offensive begins.

Before you take a position

• Read the price as one event, not the war. 14.5% is the chance of an offensive to hold territory, not of further strikes.
• Expect jumps, not drift. A single order to move forces can take this market from 14.5 cents to near certainty in an hour, and you may not be able to sell before it does.
• Know which way the definition cuts. A raid, a strike or a seized tanker does not settle it. A repelled landing does.
• Size for the full loss. Either side can go to zero, and NO risks far more than it makes.

The full Iran board, including the blockade, Kharg and leadership markets, is on the Iran topic page. The Strait of Hormuz markets are priced on a separate question — whether shipping traffic returns — and settle on data, not on news.