Who do the markets think will be Israel’s next prime minister?

As of 30 September 2026, the Israel election prediction market on the next prime minister prices Gadi Eisenkot at 43.5¢, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30.5¢ and Naftali Bennett at 14.5¢. The election is on 27 October. The market does not pay on who wins the most seats. It pays on who is formally sworn in, however long that takes.

Prices are from Oddzy and the underlying Polymarket board on 30 September 2026, 07:12 UTC. Polls are from the Wikipedia compilation of published Israeli polls. Market analysis, not financial advice, and not a political position.

What does the Israel election market price right now?

Three names carry almost all of the probability, and one carries almost all of the trading. Netanyahu’s contract did $636,500 of the board’s volume in the 24 hours to 30 September, more than every other candidate combined.

The other fourteen names, from Yair Lapid to Benny Gantz, trade at 0.4¢ or less, most with no bid. The whole board adds up to about 94¢, not 100¢; the FAQ below explains why that gap is not an arbitrage.

Why is winning the most seats not the same as becoming prime minister?

A prime minister needs a coalition of 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, and the largest party often does not have one. In 2021 Bennett became prime minister with a party of seven seats, because he could assemble 61 and Netanyahu, with the largest party, could not.

That is the gap the market is pricing. Across eight published polls from 22 to 27 September 2026, Eisenkot’s Yashar led in six, on 22–23 seats. But the seats that matter are blocs:

Netanyahu’s bloc — Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionists — polled between 45 and 63 across the eight, and only Channel 14 put it at 61 or more. His 30.5¢ is roughly what that spread implies: a real path, not the likeliest one.

The opposition’s problem is the mirror image. Reaching 61 without Netanyahu means one government spanning Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu and the left-wing Democrats, and possibly relying on the support of Arab parties, itself one of the most contested questions of the campaign. Eisenkot’s price is the market’s bet that the arithmetic works, and that he, not Bennett, leads it.

What does the next-prime-minister market actually resolve on?

It resolves to the next individual formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister after the 2026 election, using official Israeli government information. The end date on the card, 28 October, is a placeholder; nothing pays that day unless someone has been sworn in.

Two clauses matter more than the headline:

1. A caretaker does not count. If talks stall, Netanyahu stays in office, but that does not resolve his contract.
2. The deadline is 31 December 2027. If nobody is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET that day, the market resolves to Other and every named candidate pays nothing.

The rules do not spell out what happens if this election deadlocks and a repeat election follows in 2027. Read literally, the market follows whoever is next sworn in before the deadline. Reading the resolution rules first is worth the minute here, and how election markets decide who won covers the general pattern.

How long does Israel take to form a government?

Weeks at best, and occasionally more than a year. After the results are certified, the president consults the parties and gives one member 28 days to form a government, extendable by up to 14. If that fails, the mandate passes on; if every attempt fails, the Knesset dissolves and the country votes again.

The 2020 government followed two elections in 2019 that produced no government at all, with Netanyahu serving as caretaker throughout. On the 2021 and 2022 precedents, this market resolves some time between late December and late January.

Three ways to take a view

These are one question sliced three ways, so holding two of them is a hedge against yourself, not diversification. And none of them pays for a deadlock: if you think no one reaches 61 this year, no named contract expresses that.

Election night will move these prices more than anything before it. You do not have to hold to the swearing-in — you can sell before the market resolves — but on everything except Netanyahu’s book, the spread will cost you on the way out.

Before you take a position

1. Size for a long hold. Your money may be tied up until early 2027, so size the position as money you will not need before then.
2. Price the deadlock. Every named contract loses if coalition talks fail and nobody is sworn in by the end of 2027.
3. Read the ask, not the midpoint, on every name except Netanyahu’s. Thin books fill worse than the quote.

Sources: Polymarket market rules, opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election, Times of Israel on the coalition timetable