Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?
Right now · Deadline: December 1, 2026
20%chance, according to the market
Backed by $14K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 22 the market put this at 37%.
Oct 22now 20%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- December 1, 2026CurrentHouthis capture Taiz city by November 30?20%$38K
- January 1, 2027Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?34%$57K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control.
Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify.
Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established.
If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
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Price as of 2026-11-02 09:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket