Economy › Oil

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Right now · Deadline: October 1, 2026

1%chance, according to the market

Backed by $20K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Aug 20 the market put this at 10%.

Aug 20now 1%

Every deadline so far

Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.

  1. September 1, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No$2.5M
  2. September 16, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?No$787K
  3. October 1, 2026CurrentBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?1%$3.7M
  4. November 1, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?9%$680K
  5. January 1, 2027Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?19%$1.2M

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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Price as of 2026-09-25 07:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket