Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Right now · Deadline: October 1, 2026
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $20K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 20 the market put this at 10%.
Aug 20now 1%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- September 1, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No$2.5M
- September 16, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?No$787K
- October 1, 2026CurrentBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?1%$3.7M
- November 1, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?9%$680K
- January 1, 2027Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?19%$1.2M
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-09-25 07:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket