Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
45%chance, according to the market
Backed by $13K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 27%.
Aug 4now 45%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-11 15:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket