Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
4%chance, according to the market
Backed by $9K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 6%.
Aug 4now 4%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDEHow do I deposit money into Polymarket?Funding is a crypto transfer to an address that is already yours. Which networks credit, why Polygon has two tokens called USDC, and what a lost deposit looks like.
- GUIDEHow do I withdraw money from Polymarket?Your balance leaves as USDC on Polygon to an address you name. What has to be sold first, which route out costs least, and where a withdrawal goes wrong.
- GUIDEStablecoin yield: what your dollars actually earnHolding USDT pays nothing while ordinary dollars earn 4-5%. The reference rate, the three permissionless doors actually open, and what each charges in risk.
Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-18 21:36 UTC · Source: Polymarket