Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?
This market has resolved.
No
Settled on-chain after $14K of lifetime trading. The rules that decided it are below.
How the price has moved
On Aug 29 the market put this at 3%.
Aug 29now 0%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-11 16:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket