Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
This market has resolved.
Yes
Settled on-chain after $1.9M of lifetime trading. The rules that decided it are below.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 48%.
Aug 4now 100%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWill the Fed hike again in October or December?After the 16 September hike, the market puts another one this year at 80.5%. October is 46.5c, December 68.5c, and two boards disagree on whether both can happen.
- ANALYSISWhy the Fed market prices a hike after negative payrollsUS payrolls went negative in July, yet the market still prices a September hike at 30.5c against a cut at barely one. Here is what that gap measures.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-19 15:40 UTC · Source: Polymarket