Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Right now · Deadline: January 1, 2027
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $13K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 10 the market put this at 3%.
Aug 10now 1%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- September 1, 2026Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?No$22K
- January 1, 2027CurrentWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?1%$1.3M
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISUkraine ceasefire ladder: pricing a window, not a dateThe ceasefire ladder is nested, so you can take a view on when rather than whether — with the loss capped at about 12% whichever way you are wrong.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-24 13:11 UTC · Source: Polymarket