Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
3%chance, according to the market
Backed by $29K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
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How this resolves
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-10 11:06 UTC · Source: Polymarket